Monday, December 19, 2011

Businesses More Confident

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New Zealand business morale perked up in July as manufacturers and builders felt less gloomy about the year ahead, but the slowing economy still left room for another cut in interest rates, the National Bank of New Zealand (NBNZ) has said.

The banks monthly business survey, one of two key business confidence measures to gauge where the economy is headed, said a net 1 percent of firms expected business conditions to worsen in the next 1 months.

That compared with a net 4 percent pessimism in June, and the near-three year low of net 44 percent in May.

While business leaders are not exactly chipper, their mood has improved and they are looking forward with hope, said NBNZ Chief Economist John McDermott.

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National Bank said the negative influences of recent months - the Iraq war, SARS, low rainfall, and soaring power prices - had largely dissipated and there seemed to be positive sentiment spilling into New Zealand from offshore.

But though the economy is slowing and inflation subdued, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard had room to make his fourth cut to interest rates since April.

If Dr Bollard uses his scalpel to slice another quarter of a percentage point off the (official cash rate), this would help ease the pain, McDermott said.

Gloomy Farmers

The agricultural sector was the only group to be gloomier over the month with a net 68 percent seeing worse times ahead, up three percent on the June survey. The rapid appreciation of the NZ dollar witnessed over the last 18 months has kept farm incomes bedridden, he said.

The New Zealand dollar has risen nearly seven percent on a trade weighted basis =NZD so far this year, and is nearly 1 percent higher than a year earlier.

Farmers forecast a decline in profits and labour hiring, and little new investment, while a net six percent expected an increase in their own activity against a nine percent rise in June.

Official data released last week put export receipts, around half of which stem from farm produce, down nearly 14 percent in June on the same month last year, causing a NZ$0 million trade deficit, the worst June trade balance in 10 years.

Among all sectors the survey showed about a net 0 percent were expecting a lift in exports against eight percent the previous month.

A weaker trade position has been balanced by a buoyant domestic economy pumped by a property boom and strong retail spending, but those positives appear to be waning as domestic demand cools.

Growth Slowing

The own activity indicator showed a net 0 percent expecting their own activity to increase, double the June survey outcome.

Although below the historical average of 0 percent, this level of confidence is indicative of growth of about two percent - just below New Zealands potential of around percent, McDermott said.

New Zealands economy grew by 4. percent in the year to March.

The survey found a net 46 percent expected interest rates to fall in the year ahead, inflation is expected to be steady at .55 percent, and the number expecting higher prices was also steady at a net 10.6 percent.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand last week cut the official cash rate by 5 basis points to five percent, with a Reuters poll taken after the rate cut showed most economists leaning toward a similar sized cut in September

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